Viral Growth & Monetization Calculator for Facebook Apps

User Growth

Starting Users:  How many users will your app start out with? Think of any friends you could invite to try it out!
 
Invites:  Number of invites sent out by each new user (Average friend list in the United States is about 620)
 
Conversion %:  Conversion rate of invites into users. What percentage of new invitees will install the app?
 
Viral Cycle:  The Viral Cycle in days. How many days before a new user invites friends to try the app?

Monetization

Estimated CTR % (Optional):  What is the estimated click-through-rate for your ads? (1% is conservative)
Estimated RPC (Optional):  What is the estimated revenue-per-click? (Try $0.10 to be conservative)
MPV Per User (Optional):  How many times will an active user engage with your app throughout one month (20 times is conservative; MPV=monthly page views)

 

Understanding The Calculator

We are greatly indebted to David Skok and our friends at For Entrepreneurs for creating the original equation. If you are a math geek and would look to look behind the numbers a bit more, you can find a full explanation here. Or just check out the  full derivation of the equation.

We just wanted to give a little extra explanation about the results. While this is a great way to gauge the power of Facebook virality, there are a number of limitations to the model.

Limitations

  • Retention: This model assumes that you keep all of the users that you gain. This isn’t realistic. Over time, you will lose users which affects the growth model.
  • Invitations: It’s hard to predict the extent to which your users will invite their friends. Luckily, with a Facebook app, there are a number of ways that users can invite others–even if it’s “indirectly” (e.g. by posting a status update).
  • CTRs: Not all apps are created equally. Your click-through-rates will differ dramatically based on the type of users you have acquired, location of the ads, and how relevant/targeted the ads appear to your audience. We’ve given you the standard revenue-per-click model in this calculator, but don’t forget there are other (more profitable) ways to monetize your facebook app.